Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings lineup advice for Friday s MLB games

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Climbing out of the cellar

In recent memory, struggles have been an unfamiliar experience for the Tampa Bay Rays and manager Kevin Cash.

Cash's team, since the beginning of 2019, has baseball's fourth-best record (434-300, .591 winning percentage) and is one of just four teams (Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros) to have made the postseason in each of the last five seasons. The Rays, during that five-year (plus one month) span, have spent a collective eight days exclusively in last place in their division: April 7, 2021, May 1, 2021, this March 28, and then from Sunday through Wednesday of this week.

Fortunately for Cash's crew, they now get baseball's best cure for what ails you -- a series against the Chicago White Sox, who are off to a historically miserable start. And Friday brings us perhaps the series' most lopsided individual matchup (and one that they can build upon as they mount their charge out of the cellar) as Zach Eflin faces Chris Flexen at Chicago's Guaranteed Rate Field.

Eflin, one of baseball's more underrated starters, is coming off back-to-back scoreless appearances, both of which resulted in no-decisions for the right-hander and tough losses for the team. Since the beginning of last season, his 472 fantasy points are 10th-best among starting pitchers. Nevertheless, 12 other active pitchers who have made at least as many as his 35 starts during that time are rostered in a greater percentage of ESPN leagues, including the less-productive Dylan Cease and Aaron Nola. Eflin, naturally, projects as one of the day's best starters for fantasy.

It's the Tampa Bay offense that warrants more of the blame for the team's struggles. Two of the team's four highest-scoring fantasy players from 2023, Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz, are off to awful starts (Eflin and Isaac Paredes round out the high-scoring quartet).

Arozarena, due in large part to his penchant for strikeouts, tends to lean toward the streaky side. He did homer on Wednesday, and he did take Flexen deep the only other time he ever faced the right-hander. That's not to say that notoriously small batter-versus-pitcher samples should carry the day, but the homer emphasizes what is an extremely favorable matchup (on paper) for Arozarena.

Diaz, meanwhile, has been a hint too aggressive thus far in 2024, with a career-high 26.1% chase rate, but he has historically crushed curveballs, batting .341 with nine homers against them in 156 batted-ball events. Flexen, incidentally, in put-away situations has most often gone to -- you guessed it -- the curveball.

Consider Friday to be the beginning of a "load-'em up" series for Rays in fantasy leagues, despite the fact that both Arozarena (minus-5.4% in the past week) and Diaz (minus-3.3%) have experienced small declines in ESPN roster percentages. The Rays have also placed Amed Rosario (43.5% rostered) in either table-setting or run-producing lineup spots over recent days, even against right-handers, making him a prime pickup.

Everything else you need to know for Friday Here's a friendly reminder that the Colorado Rockies and the Astros, who play in Mexico this weekend, are both off Friday, as a result of the additional travel involved. Also, from a bookkeeping perspective, the series opener for the series between the Kansas City Royals at the Detroit Tigers is a day game -- Friday's only one -- with a 1:10 p.m. ET scheduled start. One thing you might immediately notice is the unfavorable (at least relative to his positional brethren) projection for Boston Red Sox RHP Kutter Crawford, the highest-scoring performer to date among those scheduled to start Friday. There are two primary reasons: Projections account for the pitcher's historic performance, during which Crawford's 4.26 ERA as a starter over the last two years is worse than league-average (that's 4.24) and a Chicago Cubs matchup -- despite the team currently missing Cody Bellinger (ribs, 10-day IL) -- grades out at below-average for pitchers. That said, Crawford's adjustments, most notably his addition of a sweeper which Statcast grades as three runs above average, make him a better pitcher than his track record says, although such adjustments aren't something easily threaded through projection systems. Crawford is performing at a level that meets my "juice the orange" description. You always stick with the scorching-hot hand, no matter what the numbers on paper say (and I'm not even sure this orange will entirely run dry of juice in 2024). Seattle Mariners RHP George Kirby, who faltered during starts No. 2 and 3 of the season (a combined 13 ER, 18 H over 7 2/3 innings), has delivered back-to-back solid outings, including five shutout innings in his most recent start at Colorado's Coors Field. Though Kirby has a tough head-to-head matchup against Arizona Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen, note that the Diamondbacks currently sport by far the league's widest righty/lefty platoon split. Besides their having a team wOBA 75 points lower against right- than left-handers thus far, the projections say that, on paper, the Diamondbacks should be a 6% weaker offense against righties. Kirby is -- and has been all year -- a must for your lineups. The Miami Marlins had the Washington Nationals' number in 2023, winning 11 out of 13 meetings. They match up brilliantly with their ace Jesus Luzardo on the mound and Trevor Williams being his opposing starter. The projections have the Nationals being 4% weaker offensively against left- than right-handers, and their best, Lane Thomas, is currently on the IL. Williams did meet the quality-start threshold in both of his career starts at Miami's loanDepot Park (both in 2023), but he's historically poor against left-handed hitters (fourth-worst .372 wOBA allowed since the beginning of 2022). It's a good day to lean into the Marlins' typical top five of Luis Arraez, Bryan De La Cruz, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Josh Bell and Jesus Sanchez.

It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

Starting pitcher rankings for Friday Reliever report

To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning. 

Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. 

Josh Bell (MIA, 1B -- 33%) vs. Trevor Williams Lars Nootbaar (STL, CF -- 21%) at Jose Butto Joc Pederson (ARI, LF -- 4%) at Emerson Hancock Jesus Sanchez (MIA, RF -- 1%) vs. Williams Riley Greene (DET, CF -- 31%) vs. Seth Lugo Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B -- 20%) vs. Graham Ashcraft Harold Ramirez (TB, DH -- 1%) at Chris Flexen Brendan Donovan (STL, 2B -- 19%) at Butto Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Friday Colton Cowser (BAL, RF -- 65%) vs. Ross Stripling Andres Gimenez (CLE, 2B -- 77%) at Chris Sale Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS -- 56%) at Kyle Harrison Cal Raleigh (SEA, C -- 72%) vs. Zac Gallen Jackson Holliday (BAL, SS -- 54%) vs. Stripling Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C -- 73%) at Hancock Michael Busch (CHC, 3B -- 65%) at Kutter Crawford Steven Kwan (CLE, LF -- 96%) at Sale Teoscar Hernandez (LAD, RF -- 83%) at Chris Bassitt Josh Naylor (CLE, 1B -- 90%) at Sale